The National Hispanic Survey provides additional evidence for use by anti-voter fraud conservatives and bolsters an analysis by professors at Old Dominion University who say non-citizens registered and voted in potentially large numbers.
President Trump has announced he will appoint a task force on voter fraud headed by Vice President Mike Pence. He says he wants the investigation to focus on inaccurate voter registration rolls, which are maintained by the states and the District of Columbia.
“It is a fact and you will not deny it, that there are massive numbers of non-citizens in this country who are registered to vote,” White House adviser Stephen Miller told ABC News. “That is a scandal. We should stop the presses.”
The little-noticed Hispanic survey was conducted in June 2013 by McLaughlin and Associates to gauge the opinions of U.S. resident Latinos on a wide range of issues.
Inside the poll is a page devoted to voter profiles. Of the randomly selected sample of 800 Hispanics, 56 percent, or 448, said they were non-citizens, and of those, 13 percent said they were registered to vote. The 448 would presumedly be a mix of illegal immigrants and noncitizens who are in the U.S. legally, such as visa holders or permanent residents.
A 1996 federal law, and other statues, makes it a felony for non-citizens to register. The poll did not ask if they voted.
But James Agresti, who directs the research nonprofit “Just Facts,” applied the 13 percent figure to 2013 U.S. Census numbers for non-citizen Hispanic adults. In 2013, the Census reported that 11.8 million non-citizen Hispanic adults lived here, which would amount to 1.5 million illegally registered Latinos.
Accounting for the margin of error based on the sample size of non-citizens, Mr. Agresti calculated that the number of illegally registered Hispanics could range from 1.0 million to 2.1 million.
As the nation’s immigrant population, both legal and illegal, grows, the question of non-citizens voting illegally has caught the attention of more grass-roots conservative groups. Aliens tend to vote Democratic and have the ability to sway a close election.
The focus intensified in 2014 when two professors at Old Dominion University and one at George Mason University collaborated to produce perhaps the first data-driven analysis of non-citizen voting, relying on the biennial Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), headquartered at Harvard University, with polling by YouGov.
Relying on the CCES responses to citizenship questions, ODU team estimated that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in the 2008 election. They presented a range as low as 38,000 and as high at 2.8 million.
The CCES authors at Harvard, Amherst and YouGov reacted with outrage. They said the small number of respondents among a sample of 38,000 people made the answers meaningless. They picked at their numbers, declared them unreliable and concluded that zero noncitizens voted.
Their rebuttal prompted the liberal media to proclaim the ODU study “debunked” even though those professors stick by their work and have filed counter-rebuttals.
The 2013 Hispanic Survey tends to confirm the ODU work and chief defender, professor Jesse Richman. The Hispanic Survey’s 13 percent registration rate is right in line with what the CCES data indicates in multiple elections.
Mr. Agresti said the ODU paper found that in 2008, 2010 and 2012 between 14.5 percent and 15.6 percent of self-declared non-citizen adults were registered to vote.
In other words, the CCES and National Hispanic Survey, done with different sample sizes, align.
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